Minr Mafia XIX: Retribution

[Srentiln]

LA FORGE: I don’t know, Data, my gut tells me we ought to be listening to what this guy’s trying to tell us.
DATA: Your gut?
LA FORGE: It’s just a… a feeling, you know, an instinct. Intuition.
DATA: But those qualities would interfere with rational judgment, would they not?
LA FORGE: You’re right, sometimes they do.
DATA: Then… why not rely strictly on the facts?
LA FORGE: Because you just can’t rely on the plain and simple facts. Sometimes they lie.

You know, if I were a petty person, I'd be voting yeroc simply for his "hurr durr". It was a conclusion based on available information and the potential of connection. I knew it was slim, but as I stated before I'd rather make a foolish statement than dismiss one that turns out to be true. I don't know anything about your side projects, nor who is involved in them. Therefore, a "hurr durr" is not justifiable and really shows me a lack of thought on your end.

Sorry to hear that Grave, hope everything is okay.

I'm not sure what the smiley could be if it is more than just having fun on creepa's part. If we see more of them in the future, it could just be the calling card of the role responsible.

bstrey, the fact that a power role has been taken out this early has me on two sides of thought. On the one hand, how would mafia have figured out rman's role this early in the game? He said he didn't even get a chance to use his role power yet, which tells me that creepa stuck to the precedent of roles activating at night. Even if they had a parallel role on their team, they wouldn't have had a chance to get the information before killing him. On the other hand, that is one amazing coincident. Again, it is fully possible, but it just feels so weird that it happened in the first guess. It seems far more likely that, assuming it was a mafia kill, they see rman as a big enough threat that they wanted him gone as soon as possible.

 

[creeperTNTman198]

Im interested in the second kill. It's unlikely that the mafia would have 2 kills, meaning either rman or swimmy was killed by a non-mafia player. While I think sren's logic is sound to conclude that rman was the mafia kill and swimmy was the other one, it still could be either. The fact that both were innocent and died concerns me because that means that either an innocent can kill and made an attempt without solid evidence towards someone's guilt, or there is an independent out there who is killing indiscriminately.

 

[Srentiln]

There is one other possibility, but I'm sure most people would agree it doesn't make sense for it to be true. There is a small chance that one kill was a auto-trigger from the other. However, since neither role sounds like it had kill-power, this seems very unlikely.

Also, thinking about it, swimmy's death does make sense as potentially being a mafia kill. He was participating in discussions far more than rman was, and therefore would seem to be a bigger threat.

 

[Edan456 the 2nd]

I think rm's role is more likely to be the mafia kill, mainly because of that list he put out, showing his views on everyone. Maybe someone he thought was suspicious could be the killer.

 

[Alphaesia]

~~~~~
A crack of lightning is accompanied by some rolling thunder, as the clouds gather above and begin to dance to their song of war.
Rain pours down upon the innocents, stifling conversation.
~~~~~
VOTE COUNT
[3] ~~~~~ - Srentiln, _Z3_, Zatharel

"Waving your fist at the man in the sky will not bring aid to you in your quest"

SIDE NOTE: Do not interpret anything from the flavour in this vote count.​

 

[bstrey]

Goodness, that day cycle went by quickly. Are there more afk people to vote off maybe? I feel most distrustful of yer and his cryptic input, but still hesitant to vote him, and no one else who has been voted for feels especially mafia to me...I liked edans suggestion of investigating someone from rm's list though.

 

[Srentiln]

Rman's list:

Red question marks:

• Bstrey
• Grave
• Luma

Yellow question marks:

• Rick
• Yer

if you are one of these and would like to explain why it couldn't have been you, please do.

I still feel that the kill could have been set up to draw suspicion on a player rather than to try to remove someone suspecting the killer.

 

[ElectroUnderwear]

The day phase isn't over, creepa is just showing the state of the day.

Swimmy was not only more active, but also more trusted than rman across the board. I do think the rman kill would've been strange coming from mafia unless he was personally threatening one or more of them somehow (possibly bstrey or zath?), but it's definitely not impossible. And I agree with creeper, the mafia team having two kills per night would be almost game-breaking and extremely hard to balance. I think we're either dealing with a Serial Killer-esque role like Z3 suggested, or an independent with a unique win condition that can choose to kill people.

Anyway, I'm going to look back and start posting more reads and conclusions to help get us moving toward an optimal lynch. I recommend that others also do this if they haven't already.

 

[Zatharel]

First of all that was a reaaaally long two days for me, grandma's bills and all, so apologies if I may have skipped a few posts. Had to ask for things to be prolonged a bit. Enough about my days though.

I don't have much to say on the discussion of the two kills, considering I (albeit briefly and without conclusions) discussed that with sren at day-start.

I do think the rman kill would've been strange coming from mafia unless he was personally threatening one or more of them somehow (possibly bstrey or zath?), but it's definitely not impossible.

Huh? I haven't seen rm take a stab at me at all this round.

If anything, the only (is it the only?) time he even mentions me is this:

6. Zatharel (limited access July 16 - 23) ?
Mostly open with his thoughts and his thoughts are much similar to mine.

Not sure what else you could be referring to.

 

[ElectroUnderwear]

Yeah, it was swimmy who was questioning you at one point, not rman. Got them mixed up.

 

[Zatharel]

Yes I'm aware of that scenario which is why I referred to the fact that I don't think we had a means of contacting nah in the first place other than the forums. Lots of us are in constant contact with creeper which makes this case different in my opinion. If he doesn't respond, we lynch just as we did with nah. But now that we actually have a means of reminding him he's playing the game, I don't see why I shouldn't suggest taking the opportunity to do so just because someone might find it "suspicious"?

Sounds good.

We settled that one though. As far as I'm aware, swimmy never had any questions for me after that.

 

[Gravebound]

3. Gravebound ?
In all honesty Grave just seems more quiet than suspicious, but my gut reaction to most of his responses are filler-ish and sparse. He seems more like a mafia leader trying to blend in than an innocent helping the pack

In regards to rms observation, the reason for my sparse communication is because at the points I have posted there wasn't a lot going on in terms of saying stuff that had not been said before,and I truly disagree with posting just for the sake of it. That, and real life business as I've pointed out earlier, which should not take too much of my time from here on out.

Things have changed though, we have since lost two of our innocent brethren, and not just any - two with a power role.
The general concensus seems to be that one of the two got killed off by mafia, and I'm inclined to agree with sren regarding
that the other could have been a kill to pin suspicion on someone. Specifically swimmy in this case, he's drawn a lot of attention
to himself by discussing this openly.

Based on the last few pages, bstrey doesn't come across as suspicious to me, rather this might just be an act.
The things she mentions are sometimes rather obvious and come across as filler.

 

[MOUTHWEST]

Alright, I'll try to help here:

There seems to be a network between bstrey, Grave, ProLuma, and Antonio. When some people come forward with guesses, we usually see multiple people they each suspect, and the overlap is decently telling:
- Swimmy charged bstrey
- Electro charged Antonio and Grave
- Rman charged ProLuma, Grave, and bstrey
Bstrey started the lynch on Nahfackler, which took the heat off of ProLuma
- Grave and Antonio both joined the lynch
- However, Rman, Zath, and Edan joined too, but the more people here makes it easier for the group to hide I guess
Bstrey has suspected Electro fairly recently, despite being almost universally supported
- Electro had previously had a scuffle with ProLuma, but that was supposedly resolved Day 1
- Grave has defended bstrey at the end of it all

Whether or not any part of this group has to do with the mafia, it does seem like a group and bstrey seems to be the epicenter of the activity.

We actually have a very interesting case here, what with having no current votes and all. I see three ways of approaching this:

1. Lynch bstrey to get a more solid grasp on this cluster. There's a pretty solid case against others if bstrey is mafia. If she ends up being innocent, either some players saw her for what she was trying to do, or the mafia rallied around a member they suspected to fall. Since bstrey did put herself in a tough spot the earliest out of this group, there is a way to find out about her allies by:

2. Lynch one of the other groupies (Grave, etc). Again, if the mafia wants to latch onto bstrey because she was controversial, they can have her killed, then claim "See, we were with her all along!" Odds are, if bstrey is mafia, most of this side group will be too, so I'm feeling like this is a "safer" bet compared to option 1, which I see as "riskier".

3. No vote no vote no vote. Let God do his part, let night come and go, and see if this group - or any other group - gets disrupted by a death. Now that I know that there is a heaven above, I think it would be hilarious for God to smite some Rando. I offer this option because it's still available. Start praying for mercy, my dudes.

However, we need to look for other groups. I do believe there is a group involving Electro, and with Swimmy's death, you have another "Option 2" scenario above. I don't care to do the research into it right now, but it's worth it eventually.

But now I feel gross as I have exerted myself.

 

[Gravebound]

Not sure which option I'm leaning towards as of yet, though I'd like to point out that I wasn't defending bstrey, per se.
What I said was "...bstrey doesn't come across as suspicious to me, rather this might just be an act. The things she mentions are sometimes rather obvious and come across as filler."

 

[Srentiln]

well, here's what I'm thinking:

If we vote luma, we both are voting someone who has been fairly quiet while at the same time testing yeroc's theory. Additionally, it wouldn't be targeting someone who stated limited access (unlike the nah lynch). If luma is innocent, it speaks against yeroc's theory. I am also willing to take the heat for it if he is innocent.

#vote luma

 

[bstrey]

Not sure which option I'm leaning towards as of yet, though I'd like to point out that I wasn't defending bstrey, per se.
What I said was "...bstrey doesn't come across as suspicious to me, rather this might just be an act. The things she mentions are sometimes rather obvious and come across as filler."

I haven't had many exciting thoughts to share, and don't want to be flagged as inactive even though I'm reading diligently.

I don't especially like being linked to other people in the manner that yer used. Anyone could see connections like that between people if they looked hard enough, even though they might not exist. Along with the cryptic role stuff from earlier, I'm not especially interested in trying to find his facade any longer.

#vote yer

 

[Pro Luma]

I would like to say, the suspicion that Rman has put onto me was that me and bstrey were both initially suspicious of Electro yet i have already cleared that that suspicion was something that i misread and it was wrongly placed. I also have been fairly quiet as of recently because i just have nothing to add to the conversation which would be deemed as not filler.
I also want to point out that as soon as the heat came upon bstrey she turned back to voting up afk's which seems suspicious

 

[_Z3_]

I also want to point out that as soon as the heat came upon bstrey she turned back to voting up afk's which seems suspicious

When did she go after the AFKs again after suspicion was upon her again? Her most recent vote was on yeroc.
Also If people are going to actually listen to me on Luma then #vote Luma.

 

[Zatharel]

Are there more afk people to vote off maybe?

@_Z3_ I think your last post is very hypocritical in regards to your reasons for voting Luma. I can see sren's logic behind his vote for Luma, but you're voting based on a past interaction where he claims to have misread something. Ironically, you just did the exact same thing. Bstrey's post is literally on this same page, so you either weren't paying attention or chose not to point that out. I don't think you're scum, but you're making some plays that I really don't like.

Bstrey, I really don't like how you're reacting to yeroc's strategy. It seems like you're only scapegoating him because you have no one else to go for. Personally, I thought some of yeroc's riddles were blatantly obvious and if you want me to I can share some insight as to what I think they mean. Judging by what I did find out from the cryptic messages and some personal assumptions I have as to his role, he may be useful for killing mafia.

That said, I'm going to hold off on my vote until bstrey responds to what I just said. For the sake of information, I'm currently deciding to vote between bstrey, Luma and one more person I want to see talk again before I make a vote.

 

[rickyboy320]

Orange.

You want to see me talk right?
To be entirely honest, I don't have anything to add, yeroc seems rather innocent (or independent) with his whole mail guy thing. not sure there's a network between bstrey, proluma etc. That was said from the beginning just because pro was targeted and bstrey tried to sway the vote to afk-ers (which seems to be a recurring subject now).
That said, bstrey seems suspicious but not sure how grave etc are connected.