Minr Mafia XXII - Spirits (Game Over)

[Meriadoc]

If I'm forced to choose between someone who's making useful contributions to the discussion and someone who's been silent for a large majority (if not all) of the day, I'd much rather have the more active player stick around if that's what it comes down to.

While I understand the suspicion that comes along with targeting a specific group of people, the frequent participants are the most beneficial this early on, unless evidence is found that suggests otherwise.

 

[Howard Lovecraft]

The mafia are a team, right? They know about each other? All they have to do is convince us all to lynch silent people, and ensure all their mafia members make some sort of contribution to the thread. Boom, the entire mafia team is safe, and we lose an inactive but nevertheless innocent player.

I think we'd have more chance hitting a mafia player with just a random lynch.

 

[Victor Pritchett]

The mafia are a team, right? They know about each other? All they have to do is convince us all to lynch silent people, and ensure all their mafia members make some sort of contribution to the thread. Boom, the entire mafia team is safe, and we lose an inactive but nevertheless innocent player.

I think we'd have more chance hitting a mafia player with just a random lynch.

That's assumng we don't find evidence after the first day passes, when certain roles may make things happen and give us clues. After day one there is a much smaller chance we will have to lynch silents.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Good point Howard. But I think lynching someone that at least we have a small sliver of doubt against is better than pure randomness. That being said, we still need to be very cautious as we proceed. If we lynch a silent person and they are a key role, we just gave the mafia a big upper-hand. I really hope we can get some good information soon. If we don't, we really have to hope we get lucky.

 

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Frankenstein, you really seem to be fascinated with that dead body. Care to explain?

For science!

 

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Also if a member is a key role, I'm going to question why they were so silent that they couldn't even bother a "hello" or something unimportant in this first couple of days. I can understand trying to lay low so that mafia doesn't catch on, but being absolutely silent isn't necessary needed.

 

[Meriadoc]

My bad Meriadoc. As you can see by my pic I'm old

No hard feelings, Doyle. You don't look a day over 35.

 

[Monsieur Bouc]

Compiled a quick list:
Spoken: Coulter, Bouc, Frankenstein, Constantine, Boreal, Prefect, Meriadoc, Watson, Blake, Lystacrl, Lindbergh, Doyle, Pritchett, Lovecraft

Not spoken: Montelbano, Parry, Fitzgerald, Moriarty, Peregrin, Poirot, Hepburn

For the record, it appears Ratchett was only a plot device and not an actual player.

 

[Lystacrl]

Did you get any clues from the scene? Also may I ask about the condition of Mr. Ratchett before and after you carted him away? Are you keeping his body in more chilling environment perchance?

Didn’t get much from the scene of the crime, but it looks like he was stab multiple times and had some other marks I can’t make out. Whoever tried to kill him really wanted to make sure he was dead. Keeping the body somewhere safe so no one else can access it, just in case.

 

[The Conductor]

For the record, it appears Ratchett was only a plot device and not an actual player.

Correct. Ratchett is not listed on the Passenger Manifest.

 

[Montalbano]

I do agree lynching the silent.

The mafia [...] All they have to do is convince us all to lynch silent people, and ensure all their mafia members make some sort of contribution to the thread. Boom, the entire mafia team is safe, and we lose an inactive but nevertheless innocent player.

There is no reason for an innocent player to not do the same, that is, contribute to the thread at this point.

See, now there has been discussion about lynching the silent, far before the day is over. Would it then not be wise to respond, in any case? The benefit that comes with lynching the silent is that those who do not seem phased by the murderings or do not have an interest in the current happenings, are removed from the train. This is far more beneficial than killing a possibly vital passenger with enough investigational skills or some other power.

 

[Howard Lovecraft]

I completely disagree with this. If you were an innocent player with no special abilities or access to real clues, why would you have any reason to contribute to the thread and just continue grasping at straws like the rest of us? An innocent with no special abilities would be less inclined to actively check the thread at this stage, as they have not a single thing to offer and so much to lose if their words are taken out of context or similar.

Mafia on the other hand, are a key role of the game and I am assuming can communicate with other Mafia members, giving them a much more active presence in the game at this stage, which is what led me to my assumption that all the mafia members would contribute to this thread and ensure we lynched a silent, innocent player.

 

[Peregrin]

I will speak in order to avoid a silent Lynch. However, I would agree with previous posters that discussing and encouraging a silent Lynch is pointless as mafia members can just encourage/harass each other to make a post. If we really have no clue who to Lynch, we may as well leave it down to RNG.

 

[Mrs. Coulter]

I will speak in order to avoid a silent Lynch. However, I would agree with previous posters that discussing and encouraging a silent Lynch is pointless as mafia members can just encourage/harass each other to make a post. If we really have no clue who to Lynch, we may as well leave it down to RNG.

If mafia members can be pressured into posting, then so can innocents through the threat of being lynched.

Howard, the problem with your approach is that everyone "has nothing to offer" at the beginning of the game. Every game has to start from somewhere, so ideally random innocents SHOULD be sticking their necks out and grasping at straws if they have to. A deadlocked gamestate is pro-mafia.

Also, the inactivity thing is just something to fall back on. I'm open to other ideas if people have real suspicions (although I seem to be on your list).

 

[Mrs. Coulter]

First opinion is that Howard is either innocent for going so vocally against the tide or he has mafia partners that haven't posted.

 

[Meriadoc]

I completely disagree with this. If you were an innocent player with no special abilities or access to real clues, why would you have any reason to contribute to the thread and just continue grasping at straws like the rest of us? An innocent with no special abilities would be less inclined to actively check the thread at this stage, as they have not a single thing to offer and so much to lose if their words are taken out of context or similar.

Even if you didn’t have a particular ability, why would you decide not to contribute to the thread when your life is at stake? You mentioned that people may not contribute so their words aren’t taken out of context, but we all run that risk. If someone (innocent or not) isn’t willing to contribute now (while the rest of us do the digging for them), it’s likely that they won’t be of much use anyway.

First opinion is that Howard is either innocent for going so vocally against the tide or he has mafia partners that haven't posted.

In response to this, I doubt that Howard would take such a conflicting viewpoint from the rest of us this early on if he was mafia, while it is possible. However, I don’t agree with him supporting an RNG lynch, as that statistically favors the mafia. Even so, Howard is right in pointing out that the mafia have the upper hand at this stage, and are likely to make sure they all participate to keep themselves safe.

 

[Ford Prefect]

For some reason I was assuming there was only 3-4 mafia members. Wouldn't that negate the idea that they could 'convince' the innocents of lynching a quiet person? Unless they get help from other roles or there is way more mafia then we think, I don't really see how that could happen.

 

[Montalbano]

For some reason I was assuming there was only 3-4 mafia members. Wouldn't that negate the idea that they could 'convince' the innocents of lynching a quiet person? Unless they get help from other roles or there is way more mafia then we think, I don't really see how that could happen.

It wouldn't, because a planted seed can grow into something bigger. Simply mentioning this thought process can cause innocents to cluster with that idea.

However, it is realistically the best option, if it comes to it.

I think the mindset of those anti-silent lynch is wrong; the goal of a silent lynch isn't to get a mafia kill in, at this point we simply know too little to have an educated guess as to do so, and statistically the innocents outweigh the mafia by a lot. Thus, if we were to go with a RNG lynch, there's a much larger chance an innocent dies than a mafia.
While the silent lynch will statistically mean an innocent lynch, it's a chosen innocent. Since the innocent does not contribute in any way, we lose the least as we possibly can.

Unless the mafia makes a huge misplay at this stage of the game, we'd be better of minimizing our risk until we have more information. If we would lose two of our main roles the first day and the first night, we would be at an extremely disadvantageous position.

In other words, lynching a silent is not to hope for a win, it's to minimize our losses.

 

[Mrs. Coulter]

I'd guess at least 4, maybe 5 mafia out of 21 people

 

[Lord Boreal]

Though he/she is unlikely to do much damage the first day and isn’t as important as the Mafia right now, let’s not forget about the one independent individual among us. From my understanding, they can win with either faction, and perhaps might have some unique goal that isn’t dependent on the amount of alive players.