MM XV - Savern Taren-Odern

[Bobtheblob]

Apologies for not posting I have recently come back from holiday and not had chance to post anything, I have just had a quick look and from what I have seen there's not a lot going on so not really anytig to post anyways but eh

 

[Srentiln]

Which is why I wish yeroc had time for this round. Not only is he the king of mafia deception, but he usually has some things to say already

 

[awkward_hamster]

I say next action, we should start looking for lynch targets. Otherwise, we will never get anywhere.

We definitely need to do something because it's been 2/3 action rounds and noone has actually done anything except ask questions.

 

[nahfackler]

Well, All I can give away is that I am not in a very good situation.

Good luck!

 

[awkward_hamster]

Well, All I can give away is that I am not in a very good situation.

Good luck!

While I respect your effort in adding information, it's an added bonus if your information is a) useful and b) not unnecessarily cryptic

 

[Alphaesia]

Well, All I can give away is that I am not in a very good situation.

Good luck!

Care to explain?
If you know you are going to die, you could leave us a premature death note.



@IanAnth66 You have yet to say anything, at all. Might be a good idea?

 

[IanAnth66]

I just don't have anything to say. If I do i'll post it, but right now i don't.

 

[SleeknFoxy]

In order to gain progress in this round, I suggest we all have a fun game of truth or dare.

 

[corygolfanatic]

Sleekn I dare you to tell me if you have a power role.

 

[nahfackler]

Care to explain?
If you know you are going to die, you could leave us a premature death note.

Who says I was gonna die? Maybe I will have a better ending, but never assume anything

 

[ElectroUnderwear]

there is no such thing as true random in coding. Rolling a physical 20 sided dice, on the other hand, is true random

Edit: Electro, disagree all you want, but it is the truth. "random generators" all rely on an algorithm of some sort to work. No matter what a website claims, if they have a coded "random generator", it is only pseudo-random. It is just how computers work. Rolling a physical dice, on the other hand, is subject to the known and unknown laws of our universe. The number of factors that effect each and every roll is so astronomically large, that it is actually impossible to predict what the next result will be until it is rolled. Therefore, it is true random.

If you don't believe me, here's an MIT quick summary of why computers aren't true random:
http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/can-computer-generate-truly-random-number

I agree that human-defined algorithms can't be truly random, but certain processes of nature can be, and random.org measures one of these processes and converts it to numbers. If you don't believe me, I think the site has a page that explains it.

 

[Alphaesia]

Sourced from here

I quoted these things if you can't be bothered to visit the website:

CONTENTS:

Intro to Randomness

Pseudo-Random

True Random

RANDOM.ORG is a true random number service that generates randomness via atmospheric noise. This page explains why it's hard (and interesting) to get a computer to generate proper random numbers.

Random numbers are useful for a variety of purposes, such as generating data encryption keys, simulating and modeling complex phenomena and for selecting random samples from larger data sets. They have also been used aesthetically, for example in literature and music, and are of course ever popular for games and gambling. When discussing single numbers, a random number is one that is drawn from a set of possible values, each of which is equally probable, i.e., a uniform distribution. When discussing a sequence of random numbers, each number drawn must be statistically independent of the others.

With the advent of computers, programmers recognized the need for a means of introducing randomness into a computer program. However, surprising as it may seem, it is difficult to get a computer to do something by chance. A computer follows its instructions blindly and is therefore completely predictable. (A computer that doesn't follow its instructions in this manner is broken.) There are two main approaches to generating random numbers using a computer: Pseudo-Random Number Generators (PRNGs) and True Random Number Generators (TRNGs). The approaches have quite different characteristics and each has its pros and cons.

As the word ‘pseudo’ suggests, pseudo-random numbers are not random in the way you might expect, at least not if you're used to dice rolls or lottery tickets. Essentially, PRNGs are algorithms that use mathematical formulae or simply precalculated tables to produce sequences of numbers that appear random. A good example of a PRNG is the linear congruential method. A good deal of research has gone into pseudo-random number theory, and modern algorithms for generating pseudo-random numbers are so good that the numbers look exactly like they were really random.

The basic difference between PRNGs and TRNGs is easy to understand if you compare computer-generated random numbers to rolls of a die. Because PRNGs generate random numbers by using mathematical formulae or precalculated lists, using one corresponds to someone rolling a die many times and writing down the results. Whenever you ask for a die roll, you get the next on the list. Effectively, the numbers appear random, but they are really predetermined. TRNGs work by getting a computer to actually roll the die — or, more commonly, use some other physical phenomenon that is easier to connect to a computer than a die is.

PRNGs are efficient, meaning they can produce many numbers in a short time, and deterministic, meaning that a given sequence of numbers can be reproduced at a later date if the starting point in the sequence is known. Efficiency is a nice characteristic if your application needs many numbers, and determinism is handy if you need to replay the same sequence of numbers again at a later stage. PRNGs are typically also periodic, which means that the sequence will eventually repeat itself. While periodicity is hardly ever a desirable characteristic, modern PRNGs have a period that is so long that it can be ignored for most practical purposes.

These characteristics make PRNGs suitable for applications where many numbers are required and where it is useful that the same sequence can be replayed easily. Popular examples of such applications are simulation and modeling applications. PRNGs are not suitable for applications where it is important that the numbers are really unpredictable, such as data encryption and gambling.

It should be noted that even though good PRNG algorithms exist, they aren't always used, and it's easy to get nasty surprises. Take the example of the popular web programming language PHP. If you use PHP for GNU/Linux, chances are you will be perfectly happy with your random numbers. However, if you use PHP for Microsoft Windows, you will probably find that your random numbers aren't quite up to scratch as shown in this visual analysis from 2008. Another example dates back to 2002 when one researcher reported that the PRNG on MacOS was not good enough for scientific simulation of virus infections. The bottom line is that even if a PRNG will serve your application's needs, you still need to be careful about which one you use.

In comparison with PRNGs, TRNGs extract randomness from physical phenomena and introduce it into a computer. You can imagine this as a die connected to a computer, but typically people use a physical phenomenon that is easier to connect to a computer than a die is. The physical phenomenon can be very simple, like the little variations in somebody's mouse movements or in the amount of time between keystrokes. In practice, however, you have to be careful about which source you choose. For example, it can be tricky to use keystrokes in this fashion, because keystrokes are often buffered by the computer's operating system, meaning that several keystrokes are collected before they are sent to the program waiting for them. To a program waiting for the keystrokes, it will seem as though the keys were pressed almost simultaneously, and there may not be a lot of randomness there after all.

However, there are many other ways to get true randomness into your computer. A really good physical phenomenon to use is a radioactive source. The points in time at which a radioactive source decays are completely unpredictable, and they can quite easily be detected and fed into a computer, avoiding any buffering mechanisms in the operating system. The HotBits service at Fourmilab in Switzerland is an excellent example of a random number generator that uses this technique. Another suitable physical phenomenon is atmospheric noise, which is quite easy to pick up with a normal radio. This is the approach used by RANDOM.ORG. You could also use background noise from an office or laboratory, but you'll have to watch out for patterns. The fan from your computer might contribute to the background noise, and since the fan is a rotating device, chances are the noise it produces won't be as random as atmospheric noise.

As long as you are careful, the possibilities are endless. Undoubtedly the visually coolest approach was thelavarand generator, which was built by Silicon Graphics and used snapshots of lava lamps to generate true random numbers. Unfortunately, lavarand is no longer operational, but one of its inventors is carrying on the work (without the lava lamps) at the LavaRnd web site. Yet another approach is the Java EntropyPool, which gathers random bits from a variety of sources including HotBits and RANDOM.ORG, but also from web page hits received by the EntropyPool's own web server.

Regardless of which physical phenomenon is used, the process of generating true random numbers involves identifying little, unpredictable changes in the data. For example, HotBits uses little variations in the delay between occurrences of radioactive decay, and RANDOM.ORG uses little variations in the amplitude of atmospheric noise.

The characteristics of TRNGs are quite different from PRNGs. First, TRNGs are generally rather inefficientcompared to PRNGs, taking considerably longer time to produce numbers. They are also nondeterministic, meaning that a given sequence of numbers cannot be reproduced, although the same sequence may of course occur several times by chance. TRNGs have no period.

 

[Zatharel]

Why are we still talking about random generation of numbers in a mafia game?

 

[Alphaesia]

Why is there no update?

@Srentiln Can you shorten these cycles to 24 hours plz?

 

[ElectroUnderwear]

Why are we still talking about random generation of numbers in a mafia game?

Because there's next to nothing to talk about?

 

[Srentiln]

In the glow of the emergency lighting, it is difficult to tell what is a person and what is a decorative plant that miraculously stayed upright. Several people stay in their room rocking back and forth, others take the time to explore. It's still unclear who can be trusted. As time goes by, everyone is finding it harder to breath.

Next action phase begins now.

 

[Alphaesia]

Someone nabbed me. I iz confused.

 

[Alphaesia]

The facts:

There are 4 ship systems.

Life Support was repaired on the first action cycle (air purifiers – life support)

Shields are on partial.

There is one person on the ship who knows the status of the ship systems.

The Pirates do not have a regular instakill.

THERE IS A FRIENDLY SHIP ON THE WAY.

An automated distress signal went off and ships (one friendly, many not) are on their way.

There are the Crew, Pirates and The Third Party.

Many people are holding back.


Thoughts:

From talking with people in game, everybody claims to be the third party. creepTNT has had the same results. This may mean that the innocents have several decent power roles, or there are a lot of (weak) pirates.

I was nabbed last night, and I assume from the update PM I was sent that I was role checked AND role blocked by one person.

Nah is in a bit of trouble, probably from the shadows. What this means I do not know.


I think in order to get this game rolling everyone should post what happened to them at night.

 

[Srentiln]

BEFORE people start doing that, I would like to remind everyone of the mafia general rule against posting screen shots of pm's from me. Just so we don't get a lot of gm-killing in a moment

 

[rmanimal]

This post is going to be a lot like Creeper's, except a few different points:
1. Srentiln's ending to the recent action cycle:
"Everyone is finding it harder to breathe"
Either this means air is on partial or off completely, but this will result in damage.
2. The unknown roles
As we've learnt already, this mafia has some "special" roles not normally used in a mafia game. In fact, we don't really any roles, except our own, at all. It would be a good idea, to get the gears going by trying to find the roles of others.